CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR MARSABIT COUNTY: OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER 2024

BY ELIAS JALLE

As we approach the October-November-December (OND) 2024 “Short Rains” season, the Kenya Meteorological Department has released a detailed climate outlook for Marsabit County. This season is crucial for the region, particularly for agriculture and water resources, and understanding the forecast is essential for local communities and stakeholders.

 

 Rainfall Expectations

The outlook indicates that Marsabit County is likely to experience below-average rainfall during the OND season. Here are some specifics:

 

– General Conditions: Most areas across the county are expected to receive less rainfall than usual, which could significantly impact agricultural productivity and water availability.

– Occasional Storms: While the overall rainfall is projected to be low, occasional storms may still occur, particularly in certain localized areas.

– Western Parts: The extreme western regions bordering Lake Turkana may see near to slightly above-average rainfall, providing some relief in these areas.

 

Temperature Forecast

The temperature forecast suggests that the county will likely experience warmer-than-normal conditions throughout the season. This could exacerbate the impacts of reduced rainfall, leading to increased evaporation rates and further stress on water resources.

 

Review of Previous Seasons

Looking back, the assessment of the March-May 2024 “Long Rains” season revealed a mix of conditions:

 

– Rainfall Patterns: Most parts of the county received near to above-average rainfall, particularly at the Marsabit and Moyale meteorological stations, which recorded substantial totals.

– **Onset and Cessation**: The rains began in early April but ceased early in May, with uneven distribution noted in areas like North Horr and Leisamis, affecting overall agricultural outcomes.

 

 Potential Impacts

The predicted below-average rainfall for the OND season is likely to have several consequences across various sectors:

 

1. Agriculture and Food Security

   – Pasture and Water Shortages: Communities may face shortages of pasture and water, impacting livestock and crop production.

   – Flooding Risks: Isolated areas may still experience flooding, leading to soil erosion and degradation.

 

2. Environmental Concerns

   – Landslides and Mudslides: Hilly areas could see increased risks of landslides, especially if heavy rainfall occurs sporadically.

   – Forest Fires: The likelihood of forest fires may rise in areas experiencing depressed rainfall, further threatening local ecosystems.

 

3. Health Risks:

   – Vector-Borne Diseases: The onset of warmer temperatures combined with water scarcity could lead to outbreaks of diseases like dengue and malaria.

   – Water-Borne Illnesses: A lack of clean water may increase the incidence of diseases such as diarrhea, especially in vulnerable populations.

 

Mitigation Measures

To counteract the potential impacts of the forecasted conditions, several mitigation strategies are recommended:

 

– Agricultural Adaptation: Farmers are encouraged to adopt climate-smart agricultural practices, such as drought-resistant crops and efficient water management techniques. 

– Community Engagement: Local communities should engage in water conservation and sustainable land management practices to enhance resilience.

– **Health Preparedness**: Increased surveillance for water-borne and vector-borne diseases is critical, along with the provision of clean water and sanitation facilities.

 

Forecasted Rainfall Timing

The onset of the rains is expected between the fourth week of October and the first week of November, with a cessation anticipated in the first week of December. However, the season may be marked by prolonged dry spells and isolated storms, necessitating careful monitoring and preparedness.

 

Conclusion

The OND 2024 climate outlook for Marsabit County highlights the need for proactive measures to mitigate the impacts of expected below-average rainfall and warmer temperatures. By preparing for these challenges, communities can safeguard their livelihoods and enhance their resilience in the face of changing climate conditions. Stakeholders are urged to stay informed and take action to ensure a sustainable and secure future for the region.